EU & UK: Barley, wheat production forecasts up in Coceral�s September report

In its fourth forecast for the 2025 crop, COCERAL estimates the total grain crop in the EU-27+UK at 306.8 million tonnes. This would be up from the 279.1 million tonnes harvested in 2024 and significantly higher than the 300.7 million tonnes projected in June.

COCERAL, the European association that focuses on agricultural trade, said wheat production (excluding durum) is expected at 147.4 million tonnes compared with 143.1 million tonnes forecast in June and 125.6 million tonnes last year. Upward revisions have been mainly made for France, Germany, Poland and southeastern Europe due to favorable weather conditions and better-than-expected yields after the harvest has been completed in almost all regions.

The EU-27+UK 2025 barley production is forecast at 63.8 million tonnes, up from the previous forecast of 59.2 million tonnes and from the 57.5 million tonnes reached in 2024. This year’s wheat crop is the largest and the barley crop the second highest in 10 years.

The EU-27+UK 2025 corn crop forecast has been revised sharply lower, mainly due to adverse weather conditions in southeastern parts of the EU. Production is now seen at 56.7 million tonnes, down from 60.6 million tonnes forecast in June and down 6% from last year’s 60.2 million tonnes.

The EU-27+UK rapeseed crop is estimated at 21.6 million tonnes, well above the 20 million forecast in June and almost 4 million tonnes higher than the 17.9 million tonnes reached last year. Northwestern Europe, particularly France, saw better harvest results than expected.