Australia: Arrival of rain improves barley crop forecast by 0.5 mln tonnes

The arrival of reasonable rain in Victoria, Western Australia and in much-needed South Australia has alleviated drought concerns and more rain is forecast in Victoria and New South Wales. With South Australia and Victoria improvement, RMI Analytics’ latest report shows an increase in barley crop forecast for Australia at +0.5 mln tonnes to 13.3 mln, similar to crop’24.

The improved moisture conditions setup for an average crop result, which would leave supply quite comfortable. April barley exports slowed, driven largely by China’s slowdown in off-take.

The improved moisture conditions are also placing pressure on prices, and virtually ensure the continued availability for Chinese demand. The March-April decline in exports is viewed as seasonal, with China shifting in the short-term to other origins (e.g. Black Sea). Recent dryness is keeping domestic feed demand strong as the availability of pasture/hay has been reduced.