World: Barley crop forecast up 0.3 mln tonnes on improved conditions in Australia and first good results from Europe

With the improvement of crop conditions in Australia and the good first harvest results from Europe, the degree of comfort for global barley has increased. RMI Analytics� latest global crop�25 forecast is up 0.3 mln tonnes to 145.1 mln in their late June report.

Australia is expected to produce a similar crop level as crop�24, and secures supply for the continued fulfilment of Chinese demand. In Europe, the rain that arrived was likely too late to impact spring barley yields, the good winter crop harvest news offers further stability to markets (this includes winter sown spring barley varieties in France where quality is reportedly good).

World barley ending stocks have moved slightly higher which adds to the bearish tone of the barley market.

While the global barley situation has improved, conditions are dry in Canada, although rain is in the forecast. At this stage, the crop�25 situation is heading toward a rather secure level of production, both in terms of quantity and quality.

As European harvest commences, French malting barley prices continue their decline and head in the direction of other origins, which are tightly clustered. The promising results being reported from France and Germany (mainly winter barley) plus Australia�s improvement leaves the market much more comfortable. The start of Black Sea harvest will provide further seasonal price pressure (feed barley). The analysts are watching closely Canada where forecasted rain is much needed and would eliminate a current area of concern.