France: France’s farm ministry increases forecasts for barley, soft wheat export

FranceAgriMer has increased its forecast for French soft wheat exports to both the rest of the European Union and outside the EU. However, export volumes this season will be the lowest in at least 28 years.

FranceAgriMer estimates that French soft wheat exports outside the EU will total 3.25 million tonnes this season, up from 3.2 million tonnes forecast in May but 68% below last season. EU exports will total 6.64 million tonnes, up 5.6% from last season. The May forecast was 6.55 million tonnes.

Despite the improved export prospects, French soft wheat exports to all countries will be the lowest since 1996/97, the year FranceAgriMer began monitoring.

In addition to a very poor harvest in 2024, French exports have been hit by stiff competition from the Black Sea region and the diplomatic rift between France and Algeria. However, a sharp drop in prices this spring has triggered demand for French wheat at the end of the season, including from Egypt, the world’s largest importer of this crop.

The forecast for carryover stocks due to an expected increase in exports has been reduced from 2.62 million tonnes to 2.48 million, which is 22% below the level of last season.

The forecast for barley exports has also been increased by 0.15 million tonnes, as supplies have increased due to a wave of sales to the markets of North Africa and the Middle East. At the same time, traders note low availability of barley in the Black Sea countries, which compete with France.

According to FranceAgriMer, carryover stocks of barley in France will amount to 1.04 million tonnes, which is 0.12 million tonnes less than expected last month.