Australia: Barley crop forecast reduced on mounting concerns about dryness

There are mounting concerns about dryness, mainly in South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales and the forecast for the next two weeks remains dry. Soil moisture levels are sufficient in Western Australia and northern New South Wales, which is a positive. On the basis of dryness, RMI Analytics have reduced slightly (-0.3 mln tonnes) the barley crop 2025 forecast to 12.2 mln tonnes.

Farmers are busy planting, despite the dry conditions and barley area could benefit from a potential shift from canola, but so far no major changes in cropping are reported. While barley area may increase, it would be under an increasingly problematic situation.

In 2025, a shift in Chinese demand from malting to feed barley continues, with China’s export share falling to ~60% (73.5% in 2024). Mexico holds a presence in exports, it is reported.