09 May, 2025

World: Barley crop forecast down 1.1 mln tonnes on dryness concerns in Europe and Australia

For barley crop’25, the volume forecast is reduced to 143.8 mln tonnes, down 1.1 mln tonnes, due mainly to dryness concerns in Europe and Australia, RMI Analytics said in their early May report.

The EU27+UK barley crop forecast is down -0.5 mln tonnes, on conditions in the UK, France and Germany. Australia and Ukraine are each down -0.3 mln tonnes. While parts of Russia are dry, there are good rains in the immediate forecast. Similar dryness concerns are prevalent in Australia (South Australia, Victoria, and southern New South Wales).

All of these are indications for a developing weather market. The fact remains, moisture (rainfall) in late May and June is the main determinant for final crop quantity and quality.

Demand for malting barley is reduced due to demand challenges that are persisting globally.
A great deal of stability comes from the combined supply from the Six Major Barley Regions (Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU27+UK, Ukraine, and Russia), with production and ending stocks both improving in crop’25. Ending stocks remain ‘low’ but must be put in the context of a reduced demand framework globally.

Early financial reporting from major brewers have shown no relief to struggling beer volumes.

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