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Australia: Consistent demand from China to keep Australian barley supply and demand relatively tight
Since the global price decline began in 2022, prices for Australian malting barley have entered a more sideways pattern, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.
Weak global demand plays a significant role in this trend, although Australia has maintained a competitive edge as an origin. The consistent demand for barley from China, including feed barley, is anticipated to keep Australia's supply and demand relatively tight, assuming normal crop conditions in the future. Other regions, such as Argentina, will aim for participation in other global trade to compensate for their decrease in Chinese volumes.
The anticipated trend for Australian malting barley prices remains on a steady upward trajectory. The global barley balance sheet should further tighten in crop '25, feeding into a scenario of rising prices. From an origin standpoint, Australia, as consistently the most competitive source, faces on-going competition from other regions that lack the dominant supply position into China. Although prices in France and Argentina are expected to rise, but these increases will be at a lower rate.
The strong pace of Australian barley exports to China continues to amaze, resulting in a tightening of Aussie barley stocks.
A partial offset is the weaker malt demand from South East Asia, including the competition from Chinese malt exports into South East Asia.
The US/China trade dispute may further solidify Australia’s position as the key barley (feed and malting) supply, holding ~70% market share, the analysts believe.
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