World: Global barley production estimate steady at 141.3 mln tonnes

Not much has changed with the overall global barley supply situation, with RMI Analytics’ global barley production estimate steady at 141.3 mln tonnes, down 0.1 mln tonnes on a slight reduction in Russia’s crop estimate.

A watch-out is weather in the southern hemisphere, which has turned wet in both Australia and South America. Australia’s harvest has advanced considerably despite various weather-related delays, and leaves a good early result in the northern barley area on the east-coast, and improved Western Australia results as harvest advanced; selections may be slightly below normal overall, but there is a sufficient source of malting quality available. In South America, the wet conditions have prevailed for some time, impacting Brazil and Uruguay harvests, and importantly have moved Argentina to being much wetter, as harvest approaches.

RMI Analytics have raised their barley exports forecast in light of Russia announcing a formal exit from exports, effective Feb. 15th, 2025, which could benefit Australia and Argentina.

Looking ahead to crop’25, winter barley in Europe is much improved over crop’24 at this same stage. News from Russia regarding the state of winter crops is concerning, with only 31% rated as good (74% last year) and across all crops is the worst crop rating in 23 years according to local sources. However, there are calls for caution, as it remains early and any slow development experienced today is not irreversible over time. Poor barley shipments from Europe validate the weak demand picture, and leaves ample supply of barley, despite low ending stocks.