Canada: Slight decrease in area, production forecast for barley crop 2024

Although some moisture has arrived in certain key barley regions in Canada, the benefit has been mixed as moisture has been variable, RMI Analytics said in their March report.

A slight decrease in barley area is forecast for crop 2024, with total production expected to drop to 8.6 mln tonnes from 8.9 mln in crop 2023.

Feed and malting barley gross farmer margins are lower than most competing crops with significant impact on planting decisions, alongside with the lack of barley market demand, domestically (due to competition from US corn imports) and exports declinging with Australia retaking Chinese supply.

The pace of exports is still lagging versus the earlier five years. With US corn imports still very price-competitive, stock levels of barley are increasing for farmers as a result.

Prices for malting and feed barley are unchanged, in a combination of poor exports (very low again in January 2023) and with other origins (e.g. Australia) remaining very competitive to China. A bullish move higher appears very unlikely under the current market.

The domestic feed barley prices have bounced slightly higher, but still face cheaper US corn prices at CAD275/tonne delivered Lethbridge. Maltsters are contracting reduced volumes to fit lower malt demand.

US ending stocks for barley are to increase by 17%, according to USDA, which also reduces the need for any Canadian barley imports.

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