19 January, 2024

EU: Analysts raise forecast for EU barley production

Strategie Grains has raised its forecast for barley production to 53.4 million tonnes from 52.7 million last month and now 13% above last year. Winter barley acreage was not hurt by the downpours, the consultancy said, while raising its estimate for Germany at the expense of wheat, Nasdaq reported on January 18.

"Concerns now centre on yield potentials, especially for soft wheat, which was hit by the adverse conditions at planting time in many places," it said.

"With rains forecast to return during the second half of January in western and northern parts of the EU, the situation will need to be closely monitored," it added.

This year's lower soft wheat area would be compensated by larger growing areas for spring barley and maize, expected to rise 7.1% and 2.4% respectively, with the maize harvest forecast raised 63.6 million tons from 63.5 million last month.

For the current season Strategie Grains made a sharp cut to its forecast for EU soft wheat exports, now expected at 31.7 million tons against from 32.5 million last month, citing a lack of competition against Russian wheat and poor demand.

A fall in prices in recent weeks against Russian and Ukrainian origins could boost French and German exports but there was little chance it could fully compensate for the sluggish first half of the campaign, the consultancy said.

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