North America: Canada barley crop forecast lowered on unfavourable weather

Rain fell across large parts of North America during the last week of July and first week of August, but many key barley regions missed it while hot temperatures prevailed, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

Saskatchewan Ag�s website noted �drought stress, heat, grasshoppers and gophers took their toll on some crops this past week� which is negatively impacting crop 2023 yields.

Crop ratings in Canada and USA have dropped over the past two weeks:

Alberta � 42.2% of the crop is rated as �Good or Excellent�
Saskatchewan � 26%
US crop � 50% of the total

As a result, RMI Analytics have reduced their barley crop forecast for Canada to 8.13 mln tonnes, down 1 mln tonnes from their late July report. In the Calgary area, farmers taking grain off as silage reported yields at 50-75% of normal, which was viewed better than expected. With the lower crop size, exports are reduced accordingly as Canada will play a reduced role in export trade, the analysts believe. Domestic feed demand forecast is lowered due to the smaller crop and increased US corn imports.

The US barley crop is generally good with harvest advancing in southern regions, but having to work around some of the rain events, noted above. The weather forecast is improving over the next 7-10 days, which is expected to create a good harvest window for US harvest to advance.

The malting barley price is higher on crop concerns and the global strength in two-row prices, while export feed barley remain unchanged but well above world prices. Domestic feed barley prices have finally softened as weaker US corn prices are displacing barley on feed rations and this will continue, the analysts said.

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