World: Total grains ending stocks expected to decline for seventh straight year in 2023-24
Despite a significant increase in production projected in the 2023-24 marketing year, global totals grains ending stocks are expected to decline for the seventh straight year, according to the latest International Grains Council’s (IGC) Grain Market Report released on April 20.
Following a projected 2% year-on-year decrease in total grains production in 2022-23, output is forecast to rebound by 2% next year, the IGC said.
Almost entirely due to a larger wheat estimate, the forecast for 2022-23 total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production is 2 million tonnes higher month-on-month at 2.252 million tonnes, but still 39 million tonnes lower than in 2021-22.
The outlook for total grains consumption in the current marketing year increased by 3 million tonnes from the March report, with ending stocks placed 1 million tonnes lower at 584 million tonnes.
The IGC said the projection for 2023-24 total grains output is up by 7 million tonnes from the previous forecast to 2.291 million tonnes. It includes increases for corn and barley.
“The supply boost is mainly absorbed by large use, mostly for feed, but still allows for a slightly larger projection for ending stocks, pegged at 581 million tonnes,” the IGC said.
If realized, it would mark the seventh straight year that totals grains ending stocks had declined from the recent high of 658 million tonnes in 2016-17.
After reaching a projected record output of 803 million tonnes in 2022-23, wheat production is expected to decline to 787 million tonnes in 2023-24, the report said.
The IGC sees slight production increases year-on-year for corn and soybeans in 2023-24.
The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index dropped 3% month-on-month, down by more than 20% compared with April 2022. Price declines were seen in all grain and oilseed commodities except for rice.
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