World: Barley crop forecast for 2023 down 0.2 mln tonnes to 147.1 mln

The world barley supply and demand situation remains mostly unchanged in February. Production forecasts has minor reductions, with crop 2022 down 0.2 mln tonnes to 151.7 mln, and crop 2023 also down 0.2 mln ton 147.1 mln tonnes, RMI Analytics said in their latest report earlier this month.

Overall demand and ending stocks are mostly unchanged and the result remains an improvement from the tighter crop 2021 situation is comfortably in place. This recovery was especially due to the solid production rebound in crop 2022 which was much-needed ad demand remained relatively strong. However, the crop 2023 production forecast illustrates the challenge faced by barley, and the fact that a drop of 4.6 mln tonnes in crop 2023 production is expected, mainly due to the pressure from other crops globally, particularly wheat. Although demand is expected to drop as well, there will be a slight reduction in ending stocks but still at a better level than in crop 2021.

Although the crop 2023 cycle is still at a very early stage, the need for a good crop outcome in 2023 remains paramount. A good situation resulted in crop 2022 but in the current demand environment it is very important to achieve a similar good result this year. Barley has performed very well over the past 5 years, but the ending stocks curve remains in a downward trend overall. As mentioned, the competition from wheat markets makes a further recovery in 2023 difficult.

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