Argentina: Barley crop forecast remains at 4.2 mln tonnes

Much needed precipitation arrived over the past two weeks in Argentina, and although it won�t repair the earlier drought and frost impacts, it will help considerably in terms of preserving quality for the existing barley crop, RMI Analytics said in their early December report.

The RMI Analytics barley crop forecast for Argentina remains at 4.2 mln tonnes as the rain was too late to rescue yields, but early reports from northern areas, where harvest has started, indicate sizing is better than expected while proteins are reportedly high due to the drought conditions (as expected).

Farmers are expected to focus on delivering the portion of the crop already sold, before making further sales and will keep liquidity low, the analysts said.

Argentina barley prices are lower, although the interest for aggressive selling by the trade is not there. Tender activity continues, for barley (and wheat) validating there is still open demand.

Another concern for barley is wheat prices, which are higher than malting barley FAS prices with even higher premiums paid by domestic flour millers. This is a result of very low wheat crop due to drought.

The Argentinean government launched a 2nd round of a special soybean exchange rate to promote farmer selling and create massive government tax revenues.