Australia: Barley crop forecast remains at 1.26 mln tonnes

Australia’s barley crop forecast remains at 12.6 mln tonnes with a very good Western Australia outcome offsetting a very difficult situation on the east coast, where harvest is trying to start but wet conditions are a challenge, RMI Analytics said in their late November report.

There is a break in the New South Wales weather forecast and combines are in the fields where possible. Early results indicate only 10-20% of barley crop will attain malt quality.

In Western Australia, a big crop is advancing with 2.44 mln tonnes of total crops harvested, 60% canola and barley next highest in share of deliveries. A good quality 6.05 mln tonnes crop is expected (and needed) in Western Australia.

Maltsters and brewers face a difficult year ahead in managing quality (in malting and in brewing) but there is substantial carry-over from crop 2021 barley, which may prove important in managing 2022 quality going forward.

Defining Australian barley prices is extremely difficult as harvest challenges persist, but nominally, feed prices are down USD5-10/tonne, while malting barley prices are holding steady, to up USD5/tonne.

Western Australia is expected to be busy in export markets with a good quality wheat and barley crop (and a big canola crop). Export terminal capacity will be tight and expensive to access, given expected strong demand, the analysts said.