World: Improving barley situation takes turn for the worse

The correction downward from the record high barley price levels has run into resistance as the improving barley situation has taken a turn for the worse, RMI Analytics said in their early November report.

Volatility has returned in the form of increasing crop issues in Argentina and Australia, while the Black Sea situation remains uncertain, at best. Farmers are not providing liquidity of any consequence across most markets, while buyers are holding price ideas well below current offerings. Traders have little interest in selling short in this market dynamic (and/or may still be covering previous sales).

Outside markets (corn and wheat) are influencing barley price direction, mostly to the upside. End users seem relatively content with coverage levels at present.

The bottom line is malting barley prices are up in most origins, but still appear to not fully reflect the changing situation in Australia and Argentina. Ukraine’s ability to export grains is hard to predict and seems to be changing almost daily. A lack of farmer selling globally remains a major liquidity challenge.