Argentina: Barley crop forecast remains at 5.3 mln tonnes

Light rainfall fell the past two weeks in Argentina, but the amounts are still minimal, RMI Analytics reported this month.

With the very good crop development in the south, the analysts’ estimate remains at 5.3 mln tonnes, but the experts also view this as the upper end of crop potential.

Export licences at around 0.9 mln tonnes are 90% feed (FAQ) with little malting barley sold for export and no change expected until the crop is assured.

The special government exchange rate incentive for farmers in selling soybeans has triggered 4-5 mln tonnes of sales. Cash flow requirements for farmers are now very low and add further disincentive to sell grains (wheat price is also higher than barley).

Argentina’s wheat prices were strong, up USD20/tonne last week before dropping back. Current barley prices are uncompetitive with wheat.

Barley prices are up slightly, with feed barley well supported following a cargo sale to China, reported at USD320/tonne FOB (2-3 weeks ago bid was USD300).

There is still interest in old crop cargo, but execution is complicated as no single selling can (or wants to) assemble the full cargo. The ongoing presence of export demand in the face of no farmer selling is expected to keep barley prices firm.