World: Major barley import cuts expected for China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey

Both world barley production and consumption are forecast at 145 mln tonnes, H. M. Gauger GmbH said in their August report.

Major import cuts are expected for China with 9.5 mln tonnes, Saudi Arabia with 4.2 mln tonnes and Turkey with an unbelievable 0.4 mln after 2.1 mln tonnes last year. Nevertheless demand in North Africa, the Arab Peninsula and Southeast Asia remains large, world trade in 2022/23 is expected to be unchanged at 30 mln tonnes.

Barley crops, both harvested and forecast, look fair to good all over the world, except for Argentina, which is affected by a long-lasting drought, although less serious for barley than for wheat.

The world crop of 145.5 mln tonnes is far below the production of 160 mln tonnes in past years, so are end of crop year stocks of 16 vs. 20 mln tonnes, the analysts said.

Markets look altogether tight, are supported by doubtful export numbers from the Black Sea and by a threatening poor maize crop in Europe. Missing export demand by the traditional large customers may pressure markets at times.