Canada: Barley exports for present crop year forecast at up to 3.6 mln tonnes
Canada’s barley crop 2020 is estimated at 10.74 mln tonnes vs. 10.38 mln tonnes in 2019. Barley export estimates for the present crop year range from 3.0 to 3.6 mln tonnes, H. M. Gauger GmbH reported earlier this month.
By mid-January 1.8 mln tonnes of barley had been shipped, the vessel line-up shows further 380,000 tonnes to be loaded. Only 100 – 150,000 tonnes are for Japan and the U.S.; China will take all available balance.
So far Chinese interest has been for feed barley, but they are expected to buy also several cargoes of malting barley.
Barley markets are very firm. The Lethbridge feed barley market is trading at C$295,- February, with C$ 5,- monthly increment for the following months. The market is about C$100,- higher than a year ago.
U.S. Yellow Corn, normally an interesting feed substitute, is no alternative this year, uncompetitive against domestic barley.
Old crop feed barley CIF China prices had moved from USD275,- to approximately USD300,-, which stopped purchases at least temporarily. Instead the Chinese turned to new crop barley and covered about 1.5 mln tonnes for Sept/Dec shipment. FOB markets had started at USD250,- and have moved to USD272,- to-date.
Price levels are very attractive for Canadian farmers. Therefore private estimates are that the barley acreage will increase this year from 2.8 to 3.2 mln ha, the crop from 10.7 to 12.0 – 12.5 mln tonnes. The official Outlook for Principal Field Crops shows a reduced barley production of 9.5 mln tonnes in favour of a larger canola crop, but is disbelieved by the trade.
Chinese new crop acquisitions of oilseeds and grains indicate a strong continuation of their grain purchases throughout 2021/22. Markets look stable to bullish long term. One bottle-neck for Canadian grain exports is the Pacific coast port capacity, which requires a good long term shipment planning. The Canadian malting industries must reckon with expensive barley supplies this year.
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