EU: Barley production forecast to decline by 8.3% in 2026/27

Soft wheat production in the European Union is expected to decline in the MY 2026/27, according to a forecast by consulting firm Expana cited by Reuters. Analysts estimate output at 128.3 million tonnes, down 6.2% from the 136.8 million tonnes harvested in the 2025/26 season.

In its first outlook for the upcoming season, Expana noted that the exceptionally high wheat yields recorded in many EU countries in 2025 are unlikely to be repeated. As a result, yields are expected to return closer to long-term averages, weighing on overall production levels.

Barley production in the EU is also forecast to fall in 2026/27, declining by 8.3% year on year to about 52.1 million tonnes. The decrease is attributed mainly to lower yields across key producing regions of the bloc.

By contrast, EU corn production is expected to increase, with analysts projecting output of around 58.5 million tonnes in the 2026/27 marketing year, up from 56.6 million tonnes in 2025/26.