Argentina: Barley crop forecast steady but continued heavy rainfall could have two-fold impact

The continued presence of heavy rainfall in Argentina is a having a two-fold impact: good vegetative growth, but raising the risk of elevated plant disease with a third fungicide application reported in a few areas. Meanwhile, RMI Analytics have held steady their production forecast for Argentinean barley at 5.1 mln tonnes.

Furthermore, the wetter conditions are expected to leave protein levels lower than average, as farmers were reluctant to apply further inputs due to price levels, and now the window to act has passed.

Strong exports of feed barley (and FAQ) will be necessary to achieve the volume of 3.3 mln tonnes forecasted.

The lack of farmer selling, an appreciating peso, plus a recent small frost event have given malting barley prices a small boost while feed barley is mostly unchanged. The recent mid-term election provided a confidence boost to the current government (40% of vote, when 30-35% was expected), and has boosted farmers’ expectation of more export tax relief.