Australia: Arrival of rain improves barley crop forecast by 0.5 mln tonnes

The arrival of reasonable rain in Victoria, Western Australia and in much-needed South Australia has alleviated drought concerns and more rain is forecast in Victoria and New South Wales. With South Australia and Victoria improvement, RMI Analytics� latest report shows an increase in barley crop forecast for Australia at +0.5 mln tonnes to 13.3 mln, similar to crop�24.

The improved moisture conditions setup for an average crop result, which would leave supply quite comfortable. April barley exports slowed, driven largely by China�s slowdown in off-take.

The improved moisture conditions are also placing pressure on prices, and virtually ensure the continued availability for Chinese demand. The March-April decline in exports is viewed as seasonal, with China shifting in the short-term to other origins (e.g. Black Sea). Recent dryness is keeping domestic feed demand strong as the availability of pasture/hay has been reduced.