Canada: 2024-25 barley supply in Canada estimated 3% down from previous year

For 2024-25, the Canadian barley supply is estimated at 9.4 million tonnes (Mt), down 3% from the previous crop year, mainly due to lower production from a smaller area, although carry-in stocks are sharply above last year’s level and the five-year average. Compared to the five-year average, 2024-25 supply is down 3%.

Total exports are projected at 3.0 Mt (approximately three-quarters from grain exports and approximately one-quarter from product exports), down 2% from last season and 11% below the five-year average.

China remains the largest destination of Canadian barley grain exports, representing almost 70% of the exported volume, followed by Japan (20%) and the U.S. (<10%). The US is the largest destination of Canadian barley product exports, representing almost 60% of the volume, followed by Japan (>20%), Mexico (>10%), and South Korea (<5%).

Total domestic barley use is projected at 5.7 Mt, 3% higher year-on-year (y/y), despite a decline in feed use.

Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.8 Mt, down 31% from last year and close to historic lows.

The Lethbridge average barley price recovered from a multi-year low of approximately C$255/tonne (/t) in August, reaching over C$310/t since late April. The average price for the entire crop year is projected at C$295/t, the lowest since 2021-22.

For 2025-26, Canadian barley area is estimated at 2.5 million hectares (Mha), according to Statistics Canada’s (STC) March seeding intention report. This is 2% lower than the previous year and 14% below the previous five-year average. Among the three Canadian Prairie provinces, Alberta and Manitoba are expected to seed less barley this spring compared to last year, while Saskatchewan is expected to plant more.

Production is projected at 8.1 Mt, 1% lower than the 2024-25 crop year due to smaller area along with forecast average yields.

Total supply is projected at 9.0 Mt, down 5% y/y due to lower production and carry-in stocks; it is also 10% below the five-year average. Partly due to the expected smaller supplies, forecasts for exports, total domestic use, and carry-out stocks are put at lower levels than those projected for 2024-25.

The 2025-26 Lethbridge average feed barley price is projected at C$285/t, down C$10/t from 2024-25, partly due to pressure from expected lower U.S. corn prices.

Internationally, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects 2025-26 world barley production at 146 Mt, up 2% y/y, mainly led by increases for the EU (+ 3.0 Mt) and Russia (+1.8 Mt), offsetting declines for Kazakhstan, Australia, and Ukraine.

World barley imports are forecast to be little changed, with noticeable increases for China and Mexico offsetting declines elsewhere. U.S. barley imports are predicted to be unchanged y/y and remain significantly lower than the five-year average. In the past two decades, global demand for barley has been relatively stable.

For 2025-26, world barley consumption is expected to be little changed, with feed use to decline and food, seed, and industrial use to increase.

Global barley ending stocks for 2025-26 are projected at 18.3 Mt, down noticeably y/y and well below the five-year average. Stocks in major exporting countries such as Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine are projected to fall sharply from 2024-25 and the five-year average, while the EU and Russia will experience an improved outlook.