World: Barley crop forecast up 0.7 mln tonnes with gains coming Europe, Australia, and Argentina

RMI Analytics� forecast of barley crop�25 has increased by 0.7 mln tonnes to 144.8 mln tonnes, with gains coming from EU27+UK (+0.2 mln tonnes) with much-needed rainfall arriving, Australia (+0.4 mln tonnes) on a gain in planted area, Argentina (+0.1 mln tonnes) on very good moisture conditions.

These production increases were partially offset by on-going dry conditions in France and parts of Australia. The forecast in these remaining dry areas includes the potential for good rains, which would stabilize production in these key regions. Any miss on rainfall forecasts, coupled with upcoming summer heat would trigger major concerns about final yields and quality.

The next month is critical for defining world�s barley crop�25 and the nearing Black Sea harvest will bring the first concrete results.

From a month ago, the tone to barley markets has calmed significantly with the arrival of rain across much of Europe. However, France�s barley crop has already experienced stress from dryness and undoubtedly the forecasted rainfall next week would be beneficial, but as well, the potential for the crop has been reduced by the earlier crop challenges.