World: Global barley crop 2025 forecast up despite dryness concerns in Europe and Australia

Amidst dryness concerns across northern Europe and in key barley regions of Australia, there are offsetting improvements in Spain and central/eastern Europe where substantial rain has fallen, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

In total, the experts’ barley crop’25 forecast increases +0.3 mln tonnes to 144.1 mln tonnes.

There is a clear delineation of crop conditions across Europe: southern regions (Spain, Italy), and across to central Europe look quite good. However, the most critical malting barley growing areas in Europe, dryness is becoming a major concern (e.g. France).

Australia’s barley area may increase, as dry conditions could shift farmers from canola to barley seeding.

North America’s crops look good so far, as planting progresses, RMI Analytics said.

The upcoming month is crucial for determining European crop yield and quality, which explains the heightened attention to weather conditions. This period will significantly influence global malting barley prices, highlighting Europe's pivotal role in the global malting barley market.

Malting barley prices have started to climb again after a lengthy decline. Key areas to monitor include: Northern Europe - France, UK, Germany, and Denmark; Australia: South Australia, Victoria, and Western Australia. Although plenty of time still remains and rain is forecast in both Europe and Australia, the recent price increases highlight how sensitive the supply and demand is. Significant rainfall in these dry barley regions could quickly change the market atmosphere. However, if the rain falls short of expectations, prices could become even more volatile, despite the currently weak demand, the analysts said.