Ukraine: Barley harvest expected to drop significantly this year

A significant decrease in the total barley harvest is expected in the new season in Ukraine, against the backdrop of reduced planting areas and the impact of weather risks. This forecast was announced by analysts of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, created under the Ukrainian Agrarian Council, as reported by the press service of the UAC.

"This year, we expect a barley harvest of about 5.1�5.3 million tonnes, which is 40% lower than pre-war levels. This means a significant reduction in supply right at the start of the season, and the market is gradually beginning to factor this into prices," the experts noted.

At the same time, they added, the demand for Ukrainian barley is growing, especially from China, which is returning to the market, and from Southern European countries. This creates conditions for stabilizing and even increasing export activity.

"China has already contracted about 500,000 tonnes of Ukrainian barley for July-August, and European importers, particularly Spain and Italy, are also ramping up purchases. Traders are eager to secure volumes in advance, considering the limited prospects for domestic production," said PUSK.

Analysts also see potential for price increases in the second half of the year, especially if weather risks materialize and the harvest turns out to be even smaller than expected.

"At the start of the season, the price model shows a level of $200-205 per tonne on a CPT basis, but by December-January, prices could reach $230-240 per tonne. The market is already showing a willingness to pay more for the limited supply of quality barley," analysts predict.