Argentina: Barley crop forecasts stable for both 2024 and 2025

There is no change to Argentina’s barley crop’24 estimate at 5.0 mln tonnes, while there remains sufficient malting barley quality availability within crop’24. However, there are reports that farmers are increasingly selling malting barley as feed barley, given the general lack of demand and the quality risks associated with malting barley (e.g. discounts for sizing and protein), RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

The implications for barley crop’25 are significant, as wheat economics (farmer margins) are better than barley. For now, RMI’s forecast for crop’25 is stable at 4.9 mln tonnes but there is a potential risk that planted area could swing out of barley and move into wheat.

As farmers are currently developing crop’25 budgets and planning inputs, wheat economics look better versus barley which may trigger a reduction in the crop’25 production estimation. Heavy rain across Argentina greatly improves soil moisture conditions.

Export licence applications at ~2.15 mln tonnes are 70% feed barley which is supported by shipments to the Middle East. RMI Analytics’ current export forecasts appear attainable but with a greater feed barley component in the absence of malting barley demand in South America and beyond.