World: World barley supply remains steady

The supply side of the world barley balance sheet remains steady with 142.3 mln tonnes of production (down -0.1 mln) for crop’24, and crop’25 forecast at 144.0 mln tonnes (unchanged), RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

Although it is early in the crop’25 cycle, the prospects are favourable due to Europe’s spring barley planting progressing well ahead of normal. Early planting allows earlier maturation and an improved chance to avoid high summer temperatures.

Despite the current weak demand situation for malting barley, the overall global demand is forecast to exceed production (led by increased demand for feed barley). The result is a further drop in global ending stocks for the crop’25 cycle, to the lowest level in over 12-years.

There is some risk that the current weak demand environment creates a false sense of security, in terms of a comfortable supply situation. The very tight balance sheet, heading into the growing season with any rebound in demand could add Image 2 considerably to market barley price volatility.

The poor malting barley demand situation, coupled with trade tariff disruptions is having a mixed impact on global barley prices. Liquidity is also rather limited across most markets, as farmers are either busy with planting in Europe or harvest of other crops in Argentina, leaving selling at low or non-existent levels. Australia’s larger crop’24 production leaves more barley to sell, while Canada is dealing with the major tariff threat from the US. Malting premiums are under pressure as feed barley prices are well supported, led by Middle East demand.