EU & UK: Barley crop forecast for 2025 unchanged at 57.5 mln tonnes

There are no changes in the EU27 + UK barley crop forecast for 2025, at 57.5 mln tonnes, but there is a small uptick (0.5 mln tonnes) in the crop’24 estimate, RMI Analytics said in their early March report.

The combination of warmer temperatures and generally dry conditions, leaves winter crops only slightly better than a year ago.

In France, winter barley is 69% Good/Excellent versus 69% last week, and 70% last year (the story for French winter wheat is similar but marginally better than barley). Conversely, the dry conditions have supported spring barley planting, at 56% complete (34% last week, and 27% year ago). There is also rain forecast this week which will be beneficial to crops.

EU barley exports are running 19.2% behind last year, and 25% lower than in the 2022/23 shipping season.

Although early crop development is not ideal, the limited demand both domestically and in export markets is keeping supply levels quite comfortable. No immediate improvement is anticipated, as an increased Australian barley crop, along with further decreases in European domestic maltster demand, will prolong the ‘over-supply’ environment, the analysts said.