World: Barley crop 2024 estimate up 1 mln due to sharp increase in Australia production

A few changes have been made in RMI Analytics’ latest global barley outlook, with a crop’24 increase of 1.0 mln to 142.4 mln tonnes due to a sharp increase in Australia’s production; and in crop’25, where production is lowered 0.6 mln tonnes to 144.1 mln tonnes, on slightly smaller Russian and Argentine crops.

The ‘Major Six’ barley producing nations should deliver further stability in crop’25, with an increased production of 2.4 mln tonnes, while the rest of the world’s supply declines slightly. As a result, global trade is expected to increase in 2025/26 but faces major hurdles in the widening trade war and a possible global economic slowdown. Ending stocks remain at the lowest level in over ten years, which is yet another reminder of the rather tight supply and demand balance.

The supply side of the balance sheet received a boost with the increase in Australia production, mainly in Western Australia which delivered a record crop. Canada may have an increased exportable surplus, if the US trade war lingers for an extended period of time. In all respects supply is available for any demand recovery in 2025.