Canada: Barley supply estimated at 9.4 mln tonnes in 2024-25

For 2024-25, Canadian barley supply is estimated at 9.4 million tonnes (Mt), down 3% from last crop year due to lower production from smaller area, although carry-in stocks are sharply above last year�s level and the five-year average, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their February report.

The 2024-25 supply is also 9% below the five-year average.

Total exports for the entire season are projected at 3.0 Mt, close to last season�s level.

Domestic feed use is projected to decline slightly year-on-year (y/y) on a noticeable decline in supplies.

Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.7 Mt, down 39% y/y and close to historic lows, as a result of reduced supplies along with brisk demand.

Statistics Canada�s stocks report shows barley stocks as of December 31, 2024, at 4.96 Mt (5.46 Mt a year ago, and 5.06 Mt for the five-year average) of which 4.63 Mt (5.04 Mt, 4.66 Mt) were on farms and 0.32 Mt (0.42 Mt, 0.40 Mt) were in commercial positions.

Total exports during the August � December 2024 period were 1.48 Mt (1.19 Mt, 1.56 Mt), with China remaining the largest destination of grain exports, followed by Japan and the US.

The US is the largest destination of malt exports, followed by Japan, Mexico, and South Korea.

The implied domestic use in the same period is 2.92 Mt (3.00 Mt, 3.57 Mt).

The Lethbridge average barley price recovered from the multi-year low in August and reached over C$300/tonne (/t) in December and January; this brings the to-date average at about C$285/t. The average price for the entire crop year is projected at C$295/t, the lowest since 2021-22.

Internationally, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) put the 2024-25 world barley supply estimate at 190 Mt in its February supply and demand update. This is down 3% y/y and 7% below the five-year average, also the lowest in six years.

Trade is expected to move slowly in 2024-25 compared to the past several years. World feed use is projected to rise y/y, with food and industrial use to fall marginally.

World ending stocks are projected at 18 Mt, down sharply from last year and the five-year average to an all-time low.

For 2025-26, Canadian barley area is projected at 2.7 million hectares (Mha), an expansion of 4% from 2024-25, but 9% below the five-year average.

Production is projected at 8.6 Mt, an increase of 6% from 2024-25 due to larger area along with a return to normal yields.

Supply is expected to be close to 2024-25 as the larger production is offset by lower carry-in stocks.

Total exports are forecast to decline by 3% due to expected production recoveries in key competitors.

Total domestic demand is predicted to be slightly above 2024-25 on larger feed use.

Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.75 Mt, up from 2024-25.

The 2025-26 Lethbridge average feed barley price is projected at C$285/t, down C$10/t from 2024-25, due to the pressure from expected lower US corn prices.

Given the tight supply and demand balance for 2024-25, global barley production will likely increase in 2025-26.

For the EU, the European Commission has projected a relatively stable barley area and yield potential for 2025, leading to a slight y/y increase in production. Projected at 51.1 Mt. the 2025 EU barley production will remain below the five-year average.

For the US, the USDA�s ten-year baseline projections indicate a slight y/y increase in 2025 barley production, primarily as a result of expected improvement in yields with stable seeded area. Projected at 3.2 Mt, 2025 US barley production will remain well below the five-year average.

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