North America: Barley prices unchanged as industry tries to adjust to threat of tariffs implementation

The threat of US tariffs neared implementation before a last-minute delay (30 days), but there were impacts nonetheless. Barley prices are unchanged, as the industry tries to adjust to a very dynamic situation, RMI Analytics said in their early February report.

Malt flows into the US could be significantly impaired if a trade war results, offset in part by an expected increase flow to Mexico (through the US). In total, an interruption in malt shipments to the US is negative to malt demand for barley in Canada.

Of note, Chinese December barley imports were led by Canada (Australia in 2nd place). Meanwhile, US corn imports are not pricing competitively under the tariff risk environment, and local feed barley prices are firmer in forward positions; discounted grain is available to feeders in the spot market.

Feed barley demand may decline in the longer term, if US/Canada tariffs reduce cattle on feed numbers in Canada, the analysts said.