Canada: 2023-24 Canadian barley supply estimated 8% down year-over-year
For 2023-24, Canadian barley supply is estimated at 9.7 million tonnes (Mt), down 8% year-over-year and 6% below the previous five-year average, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their May report.
Total domestic demand is forecast at 6.1 Mt, up by 2% year-over-year and in line with the average, supported by industrial use.
Total exports are predicted at 2.8 Mt, down noticeably from last year and the average.
Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.9 Mt, up from 2022-23’s 0.7 Mt and the average of 0.8 Mt.
According to Statistics Canada (STC) May grain and oilseed stocks report, Canadian barley stocks on March 31, 2024, sit at 3.1 Mt, up from a year ago and the average of 2.8 Mt, despite a smaller supply for the crop year, as demand (primarily for domestic animal feed and for exports) decreased further in the first eight months of the current crop year (August 2023 – March 2024).
Total domestic disappearance in the same period was pegged at 4.8 Mt, down from 4.9 Mt a year ago and the average of 5.0 Mt, reflecting the trend of feed use.
Exports of barley grain in the same period were 1,345 thousand tonnes (Kt), the lowest in seven years, partly due to exports to China (the largest destination of Canadian barley exports in recent years) falling sharply. So far, the largest destination is China (accounting for 86% of the exports), followed by the US (11%), and Japan (4%). Product exports (grain equivalent) in the same period were 460 Kt, down from a year ago and the five-year average of 471 Kt. The major destinations have been the US (57%), Japan (22%), Mexico (13%), and South Korea (4%).
The feed barley cash price in the Lethbridge, Alberta, feedlot region saw some strength in April, with the April simple average at around C$295/tonne (/t). The crop year-to-date average was slightly below C$325/t, C$95/t lower than last year. For the entire crop year, price is forecast at C$310/t on average, 26% lower than 2022-23.
Worldwide, global barley supply for 2023-24 will be the lowest in five years, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Global demand for animal feed is also expected to fall to a five-year low, but demand for food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) will rebound year-over-year and be slightly above the five-year average, a record high. World ending stocks are projected to close at an all-time low. Compared to the April projections, the USDA’s May projections include smaller supply and feed demand and larger ending stocks.
For 2024-25, Canadian barley production is projected at 9.5 Mt, up 7% year-over-year, supported by an assumed return to normal yields despite smaller seeded area.
Supply is projected at 10.4 Mt, up 7% year-over-year and 2% above average, due to expected increases in production and carry-in stocks more than offsetting lower imports.
Total domestic use is forecast to rise due to increased supply and higher feed use.
Exports are projected to remain stable due to strong competition from major barley exporting countries despite larger domestic supplies.
Carry-out stocks are projected at 1.2 Mt, up sharply compared to the previous year and the average.
The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast at C$295/t, down C$15/t year-over-year and the lowest level in four years.
Worldwide, the USDA predicts a recovery in global barley production for 2024-25. Pegged at 150 Mt, the 2024-25 global barley production is forecast to rise by 8 Mt from 2023-24, with higher production forecasts for the EU, Australia, Canada, and Argentina, and lower forecasts for Russia, Ukraine, and the US. Total supply is projected at 197 Mt, up more than 6 Mt year-over-year on larger production. Total demand in 2024-25 is projected to increase from 2023-24, with ending stocks remaining relatively steady.
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