Argentina: Barley crop forecast up 0.2 mln tonnes thanks to improved weather

Conditions continue to improve across key barley regions in South America with further rain setting up a very good soil moisture situation, RMI Analytics said in their May report.

Extremely heavy rains in southern Brazil have caused floods and require further monitoring but otherwise Chile, Uruguay, and Argentina are setting up very well for barley planting which is about to roll out.

With these improved conditions, RMI Analytics’ current barley crop forecast for Argentina is increased by 0.2 mln tonnes to 4.9 mln, but this is predicated upon barley retaining area under strong competition from wheat.

Planting has started but remains in the very early stages, with seeding expected to continue through June/early July.

Farmers have remained very patient in their crop marketing with only 60% of crop 2023 barley marketed, leaving 2 mln tonnes still to be sold. In addition, nearly 5 mln tonnes of crop 2024 are essentially unsold, and combined, Argentine farmers have nearly 7 mln tonnes of barley to market.

The analysts’ estimate for the crop 2024 marketing year has been increased slightly as Europe (including Russia) which is dealing with a range of weather challenges may be slightly less active in global trade. This could be an opportunity for Argentina to capture volumes, which may balance some lost share to Australia.

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