Australia: Barley crop forecast increased to 11.6 mln tonnes thanks to improved prospects in a number of states
As winter crops (including barley) are about to start seeding across Australia, the much needed rainfall result for a good moisture profile has been mixed, RMI Analytics said in its latest report earlier in April.
In Western Australia, early seeding has begun but not yet for barley, and unless rain arrives farmers would have to seed under dry conditions. On the back of these drier conditions, RMI Analytics’ Western Australia barley crop forecast is unchanged from the crop 2023 level (3.8 mln tonnes), but the prospects in South Australia, Victoria, and New South Wales are improved. With this positive east-coast development, the analysts’ overall crop 2024 forecast has increased by 0.5 mln tonnes to 11.6 mln.
There are reports of extreme moisture conditions in northern New South Wales and Queensland and the presence of mould in sorghum crops, which provide a perspective to the degree of rainfall that has been received.
The pace of barley exports was very brisk prior to February 2024, before volumes dropped sharply with 0.5 mln tonnes shipped in February versus January’s 0.925 mln tonnes. China remains the primary destination for exports, representing nearly 75% of all exports. The February reduction of volumes is attributed to the Chinese New Year celebration which normally interrupts commercial activity but a rebound in shipments is expected to occur between March and July, and keeping on pace for forecast levels.
Australian barley prices are higher across all port zones and the increase is attributed to the following factors:
• Cattle feeding margins have improved and the result is an increase in domestic feed demand which in turn is boosting feed barley prices;
• A recent tender for malting barley to Mexico was awarded to Australia (30 thousand tonnes), helping offset a slow period in trade to China, where buying interest has disappeared at current high levels;
• Farmer focus has shifted to the upcoming planting season and less on grain marketing. Liquidity is low at the moment.
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