EU: Barley output should jump next year, analysts predict

European Union soft wheat production should fall next year, due mainly to wet weather in France, while barley output should jump, buoyed by a shift to spring barley after poor winter sowings, consultancy Strategie Grains said on December 21.

In initial projections for the 2024 harvest, Strategie Grains forecast soft wheat production at 124.8 million metric tons, down 1% from 125.9 million this year.

It lowered its estimate for the total soft wheat area to 21.2 million hectares, down 2.4% compared to 2023/24. Last month it had forecast a drop of 0.9% in the total EU soft wheat area ahead of the 2024 harvest.

It said barley production was expected to increase by more than 11% to 52.7 million tons, despite a 0.8% drop in winter barley sowings from last year.

"These falls primarily concern France, where rains delayed or prevented winter cereal drillings to a greater extent than elsewhere," Strategie Grains said in a monthly report.

France has experienced heavy rainfall in the past two months, which halted field work in many parts of the country. Consultancy Argus on Wednesday forecast an 11% drop in French soft wheat sowings to the lowest level since at least 2000.

In contrast, Spain and north Europe should record the largest year-on-year production growth, after their arduous harvests of 2023, Strategie Grains said.

The poor sowings of winter cereals are likely to prompt farmers to shift plantings to spring grains, with spring barley sowings expected to rise 5.8% versus 2023/24 while the area sown with grain maize next year would gain 2.4%, it said.

Increased competition from North American grains and rising Ukrainian exports to third countries was expected to weigh on exports in 2024/25, pegged at 30.9 million tons from 32.5 million in 2023/24, an estimate raised by 400,000 tons from last month.

In imports, arrivals of wheat and barley from Ukraine are expected to decline, given Spain’s smaller anticipated requirement compared with 2023/24, Strategie Grains said.

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