EU & UK: Crops across continent faring well but with some areas of concern
Over the last few weeks, focus in global grain markets has very much turned to new crop conditions in the northern hemisphere, so it’s important to look at European crop prospects for next season. According to the latest MARS report published by the European Commission on April 24, while in general, crops across the continent are faring well, there are some areas of concern, AHDB reported.
Large areas in northern Europe have experienced a substantial amount of rainfall over the past few weeks. This has benefitted soil moisture, ground water and surface water levels, but in some areas has resulted in delays to spring plantings and other fieldwork. The planting of spring barley in particular has seen significant delays in certain regions, and it’s unclear whether intended area will be accomplished in Ireland, parts of western Europe, and in the UK.
On the other hand, in southern regions in Europe, there are ongoing concerns over drought conditions. In Spain and Portugal, there has been no significant rainfall since January, with temperatures also abnormally high. In winter crops, as well as spring barley, soil moisture is now critically low, impacting the growth and development of crops. In Spain, the drought, combined with low water reserves for irrigation, will also impact planted area of spring crops, where some maize will be replaced by sunflowers or other water stress resistant crops. This week’s report also suggests that some land may not be drilled at all in this region.
Looking ahead to next season, most of Europe is faring well, with total cereals output for harvest 23 estimated at 283.1Mt (up 1.4% on the five-year average). However, with some crops in southern regions struggling, much like this season, there could be increased export opportunities for the UK, especially for barley.
Spain’s barley crop for harvest 23 is currently estimated at 6.0Mt by the European Commission, down 28.6% on the five-year average. If realised, this would also be down 8.7% on the year. According to HMRC trade data, UK barley exports to the EU so far this season (Jul-Feb) have totalled 769.3Kt, up 58.5% from the same period in the 2021/22 season. With Spain taking the largest proportion of EU barley imports this season, another yearly decrease in production will likely lead to even more imports.
However, strong UK barley exports will of course depend on the nation’s own ability to plant spring barley over the next few weeks, though the UK is forecast some dryer days at the end of next week. It’s also important to remember that the UK will need to remain competitive on the global market in order to see a greater export pace next season. This will be something to watch as we move into the next marketing year, AHDB said.
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