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Australia: Barley crop 2022-23 sits as third-largest crop on record
Australia is estimated to have produced 39.2 million tonnes (mln tonnes) of wheat, 14.1 mln tonnes of barley and 8.3 mln tonnes of canola from the 2022-23 winter-crop harvest, according to estimates released on March 7 by ABARES in its quarterly Australian Crop and Agricultural Commodities reports.
The wheat figure is up 7 percent from the previous estimate released in December of 36.6 mln tonnes, which broke the national production record set in 2021-22 of 36.3 mln tonnes.
The canola estimate is up 13pc from 7.3 mln tonnes forecast in December, which broke last years record of 6.8 mln tonnes.
Barley is up 6pc on the previous estimate of 13.4 mln tonnes, and sits as the third-largest crop on record, with its area being down from 2021-22 because of increases for wheat and canola.
In commentary tied to the crop report and to ABARES March quarter Agricultural Commodities Report, in the record-breaking streak for Australian agriculture, the national forecaster said 2022-23 gross value of production was set to reach A$90 billion in the year to June 30 surpassing, by more than A$2 billion in nominal terms, the record set in 2021-22.
Executive director of ABARES Jared Greenville said record gross value of production is expected, despite the floods across eastern Australia.
Australia is benefitting from a third consecutive year of high rainfall, and it shows in the figures, Dr Greenville said.
Once again, were seeing record levels of production, driven by exceptional growing conditions and high commodity prices.
Agricultural exports are also forecast to set new records, reaching $75 billion in 2022-23.
This is the first time weve seen our exports exceed $70 billion, which is a huge achievement.
National winter crop production has driven much of these results, with the winter crop estimated at a new record of 67.3 mln tonnes in 2022-23.
This beats last years record by 4 mln tonnes and is being driven by exceptional results out of Western Australia and South Australia.
Dr Greenville said high values of livestock production have also contributed to record numbers.
Drier conditions ahead
This year will likely be the last hurrah for the La Nia rain system for a while, and we can expect drier seasonal conditions ahead.
However, production will continue to be supported by good soil moisture and high water storage levels.
ABARES is forecasting the value of 2023-24 agricultural production at $81B, the third-highest on record.
Australia has been very fortunate to have had wet years and high commodity prices, but we are expecting commodity prices to ease with competition stepping up in global markets.
Recent high international prices have been driven by drought conditions in major exporters and disruptions from the war in Ukraine.
Dr Greenville said seasonal conditions were expected to improve in major producing regions which will see major exporters getting back on track in 2023-24.
Over the medium term to 2027-28, seasonal conditions are expected to return to a more normal sequence and commodity prices are expected fall.
The value of agriculture will remain strong, reaching $74.4 billion in real terms.
However, should we see a shift back towards a drier climate sequence and global economic uncertainty carry on for longer, greater pressure will be placed on sector growth.
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