21 November, 2021

World: Barley production forecast unchanged at 148.2 mln tonnes

Global barley production forecast for 2021/22 is unchanged at 148.2 mln tonnes with a 10.6 mln tonnes reduction from crop 2020, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

High prices are having some rationing effect on barley, mainly fee, forcing consumption down by 3.1 mln tonnes but in the end a tighter balance sheet results with lower ending stocks.

World barley trade will remain elevated as China shows no sign in slowing imports (neither of other commodities for that matter). Quality challenges (e.g. Canada) are adding new, non-traditional shipment patterns to world trade flows, the analysts said.

The “Big Six” production regions (Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Ukraine, Russia) are seeing the major drop in output (-9.1 mln tonnes). Canada’s drought situation is clearly a major contributing factor, down 4 mln tonnes from expectations earlier this year. however, the EU-27 is also down by 4 mln tonnes, adding pressure on the supply chain to secure sufficient malting barley in crop 2021. For crop 2022, winter barley plantings in Europe are mostly completed under generally favourable conditions. A small increase in area (2%) supports rebuilding bery low stock levels.

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