Canada: 2021/22 barley supply projected at 8 mln tonnes, sharply down from 2020/21

For 2020-21, Canada exported 4.57 million tonnes of barley, up 50% from 2019-20 and 45% from the previous five–year average, reaching the highest in recent three decades. Barley imports for 2020-21 increased to 0.30 mln tonnes, up sharply from last year, reaching a record high, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada reported on October 20.

Total domestic use of barley, at 6.71 mln tonnes, was down 9% from last year on a decline in feed use, although industrial use picked up. Carry-out stocks fell sharply from last crop year to 0.71 mln tonnes, the lowest level on record.

The stocks-to-use ratio is pegged at 6%, versus around 19% in normal years, the farm ministry said.

The 2020-21 average feed barley price in Lethbridge area was finalized at C$294/t, up from 2019-20 and reaching a record high.

For 2021-22, Canadian barley supply is projected at 8.00 mln tonnes, down sharply from 2020-21 and reaching a record low, primarily due to production issues in Canada’s Prairie provinces, as well as record low carry-in stocks. As a result, demand, including for domestic feed consumption and exports will be sharply down.

The average price of feed barley for 2021-22 is predicted to increase sharply from 2020-21, supported by tight carry-in stocks, significant new crop production problems and stronger prices of other grains.

Globally, 2021 barley production in major exporting countries is expected to decline, with the exception of Argentina with an increase of 0.30 mln tonnes and Ukraine with an increase of more than 2.55 mln tonnes.

Demand of barley for feed use is expected to drop worldwide, mainly due to record corn production expected around the world. World barley trade for 2021-2022 is predicted to decline on lower import projections for China due to its expected bumper corn production. World ending stocks are expected to decrease to their lowest level since 1983-84.

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