World: Barley crop forecast reduced to 149 mln tonnes

RMI Analytics have reduced their global barley crop 2024 forecast to 149 mln tonnes, a drop of 0.9 mln tonnes from their previous report earlier in April.

The reduction comes mainly from reduced yield expectations in Europe (late planting and slow early development) and in Russia where dryness is an increasing concern. Although it is very early in the crop 2024 cycle, there are areas of concern, ranging from too dry in parts of North America and Western/South Australia to the ongoing cool/wet conditions across much of Europe. Apart from delays in planting, the cool weather is delaying early crop development as well.

Some positive news is coming from Argentina where good rains have fallen, and eastern Australia has good soil moisture to start with.

There is still an improved supply situation for crop 2024 over crop 2023 but this improvement will come with volatility, due to the lateness of the important western Europe barley crop. Availability of malting barley quality should still improve despite these concerns.

World malting barley prices are steady as compared to early April, with underlying support coming from the less than ideal early crop developments in Europe. Globally, the willingness of farmers to sell/contract malting barley at this stage is quite reduced as in many regions farmers are getting busy with planting crops, and conditions in many areas make it prudent to wait until crops are more established before selling. It is not uncommon to seed barley under dry conditions or later than usual, but it is still less than ideal. Liquidity is expected to stay lower which is not a major problem as demand is still weak. However, any demand recovery could create some price volatility.

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