World: USDA projects global barley output increase in 2019/20

In 2019/20 global barley production is projected to rise to its largest level since 2008/09 driven by Canada, the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine, to 153.308 mln tonnes, USDA said in its May report.

The Canadian crop may reac its largest level in 6 years (since 2013/14), at 9.8 mln tonnes, with expanded area, while production for the others returns to more historical levels, the analysts said.

Global barley trade expands moderately to 27.96 mln tonnes, supported by stronger import demand primarily for Morocco and Saudi Arabia. The lack of rainfall in Morocco earlier in 2019 has impacted both barley and forage production. Saudi Arabia’s concern over water availability favors wheat production over forage crops. Tighter supplies of forage in both countries are expected to boost barley imports.

With only moderate growth in global consumption for food, seed, industrial, and feed use (forecast at 150 mln tonnes), ending stocks are projected to rebound after 2 years of decline to 20.072 mln tonnes.

China barley imports in 2019/20 may rise 500,000 tonnes to 7.0 million on greater use for food, industrial, and feed purposes, USDA forecasts.

Morocco barley import forecast is up 900,000 tonnes to 1.2 million reflecting a smaller crop impacted by the lack of rain during the growing season early in 2019. The harvest season for barley is May-July.

Saudi Arabia barley import is forecast up 900,000 tonnes to 8.5 million, while corn is expected to rise 500,000 tonnes to 5.5 million. With concerns over water availability, the country favors food crop (i.e. wheat) production over forage crops. Imported barley and corn substitute for limited supplies of forage in feed rations.

Turkey barley import is forecast down 200,000 tonnes to 100,000 with a projected record crop.

Argentina barley export is projected down 400,000 tonnes to 2.7 million on smaller exportable supplies.

Australia barley export in 2019/20 is forecast up 500,000 tonnes to 5.0 million on a larger crop and expected demand from Asia.

Canada barley export is forecast down 200,000 tonnes to 2.0 million on stronger competition from other exporters, namely Australia, the European Union, and Russia.

EU barley export is forecast up 1.0 million tonnes to 6.0 million reflecting near-record production and expectations for robust global demand in markets such as Saudi Arabia.

Russia barley export is forecast up 500,000 tonnes to 5.3 million with a larger expected crop. In addition, exports are supported by robust demand in the Middle East and East Asia and logistical advantages to supply the region.

Ukraine barley export is projected up 300,000 tonnes to 4.5 million on larger crop prospects and higher demand in Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern markets.

For 2018/19, China barley imports forecast is down 1 mln tonnes to 6.5 mln on slowing purchases, mainly from Australia, the USDA analysts said.

Jordan’s barley imports forecast is up 300,000 to 900,000 tonnes on trade volume to-date.

EU barley exports forecast is down 300,000 tonnes to 5 mln on lower supplies and consistent domestic use.

2018/19 barley production is seen at 139.813 mln tonnes vs. 141.794 mln in 2017/18. Trade is expected at 26.305 mln tonnes (26.945 mln in 2017/18), whereas consumption and ending stocks are seen at 142.042 and 16.765 mln tonnes, respectively (146.509 and 18.994 mln tonnes in 2017/18).

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