Australia: Barley crop 2025 currently forecast at 15.8 mln tonnes with potential for further increase

Harvest continues to run into some weather delays, particularly in southern New South Wales and Victoria, but the forecast shows a clearing pattern and good harvest progress expected in Australia, RMI Analytics reported earlier this month.

For the second consecutive year, ABARES has released a substantial late-season increase to barley production with a move to 15.7 mln tonnes from the previous 14.6 mln tonnes. Harvest to date has confirmed these better yields and as a result RMI’s crop’25 forecast is raised to 15.8 mln tonnes, there is a potential for a further increase depending on the Victoria and South Australia final harvest.

The confirmed results in Western Australia and New South Wales already assure a reasonable crop outcome.

Based upon a crop nearing 16 mln tonnes, RMI Analytics’ export estimate has increased to 8.6 mln tonnes, the second highest level since crop’16 when 9 mln tonnes shipped.

East-coast harvest delays have firmed prices slightly while other origins feel harvest pressure. France led October barley shipments into China (Australia second), a seasonal trend with a rebound expected in Nov.-Feb. Eastern cattle feeder demand is strong, and keeping feed barley prices up, at least until harvest can advance further.