Canada: Barley crop 2025 forecast at 9 mln tonnes still slightly above official estimates, analysts say

Looking ahead to crop’26, subsoil moisture levels across western Canada were 80% abnormally dry or in drought conditions at the end of October. November rainfall has not remedied the situation, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

For Canadian barley crop’25, the experts have left unchanged their forecast at 9.0 mln tonnes, which is still slightly above both official and private estimates. This increased supply necessitates an increase in barley exports, which are forecast and currently on track to be achieved.

In addition to the good overall pace, 45% ahead of last year and at the top of past five years, exports to Saudi and China for feed barley are evidence of Canada’s strong competitiveness in global feed markets.

The pace of farmer selling has slowed, which aligns with a corresponding dip in exports, as capacity at west-coast port facilities is now being fully utilized.

With strong export levels continuing and farmer selling waning somewhat, export feed barley prices have firmed. Two cargos traded to Saudi and persistent interest in feed barley (i.e. China) is firming prices.

Malting barley prices are unchanged with very little activity. Domestic feed barley prices remain on a sharp upward trend, but is now starting to make US corn competitive again.