Argentina: Barley crop forecast unchanged at 4.9 mln tonnes

Further rains are adding to the already ample moisture situation in Argentina, and further elevate crop disease concerns. The experts’ barley crop’25 forecast for the nation remains at 4.9 mln tonnes, but with little farming selling on the books so far. In addition, the Govt’s move to suspend export taxes until Oct. 31, to address a need for hard currency (USD). However, this move likely benefits soybeans, oil, and meal as these have export tax rates of 24.5-26% versus barley at 9.5%. The result is expected farmer selling of soybeans and less so for barley.

Argentina’s export barley prices are slightly lower on a FOB basis, with virtually no trade of crop’24, and buying interest for crop’25 at much lower levels. Farmer FAS prices for new crop are up slightly in an attempt to trigger farmer selling but so far we await to see if the pause on export taxes is beneficial to barley and malt exporters.