USA: US beer volumes expected to fall about 5% this year

Barclays warned that weak beer demand and economic strain will weigh on volumes and investor sentiment on the U.S. beer sector for some time as it downgraded Constellation Brands and Molson Coors, Investing.com reported on September 12.

Analysts downgraded Corona beer maker Constellation to Equal weight from Overweight.

Molson Coors , which has Coors and Miller beer brands, was cut to Underweight from Equal weight given a lack of catalysts after another disappointing summer selling season.

“Just as consumer spend has been measured & careful, so too are we taking a more selective stance… and frankly we struggle to think of a positive catalyst for US beer trends, and investor sentiment towards the category,” analysts at Barclays added.

Barclays now expects U.S. beer volumes to fall about 5% in 2025 before moderating to a 2% annual decline in later years.

Analysts cited pressure on lower-income consumers and the Hispanic cohort, a key driver of industry sales, as a major headwind.

Constellation, which gets about 40% of its beer revenue from Hispanic consumers, faces added risk from immigration policy curbing social gatherings, Barclays said.

Surveys show Hispanic beer buyers are increasingly worried about their finances, leading to sharper declines in purchase rates compared with the broader population.

Molson Coors is seen as more vulnerable given its reliance on light beer brands, while Constellation’s high-end Mexican portfolio offers relative resilience.

Still, Barclays trimmed its growth expectations for both companies, saying industry malaise and shifting consumer habits leave little room for near-term recovery.