World: Barley crop forecast up 0.1 mln tonnes this month

The world’s barley crop 2025 forecast is virtually unchanged, at only +0.1 mln tonnes to 144.8.0 mln tonnes. However, there has been a number of additions and subtractions globally, including a boost in Europe from France, Germany, and Denmark plus Russia. Canada and Argentina production are also slightly higher. The biggest decline comes from Turkey where drought will reduce the exportable surplus considerably, plus a minor decline in Polish barley production. Despite the hot/dry weather is May/June, Europe’s crop result provides an increase in selectable malting barley over crop’24, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

Canada’s crop has benefited from late season rains but now the rain must stop. Southern hemisphere looks great as well.

Globally, crop’25 is set to deliver approximately 145 mln tonnes of total barley, with plenty of malting barley quality available under the sluggish demand that persists (confirmed by brewers’ Q2 financial results), leaving a very comfortable supply.

A bearish tone continues to hang over global malting barley markets, while feed barley remains well supported for the moment. The result is a continuing tightening of the malting barley premium over feed barley, and in France, winter malting barley is nearing feed barley levels. French spring malting barley has moved in alignment with Australia, as the cheapest origin globally with Argentina trending in the same direction. A similar move lower is likely for Canada but only once harvest starts to progress further.