Australia: Wheat and barley output forecast to be above average in 2025-26

Thanks to widespread rain in the first two weeks of July and a favorable rainfall outlook for the months ahead, the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture forecasts above average wheat and barley production in Australia for the 2025-26 marketing year, World Grain reported on July 28.

After a challenging start to the winter crop season due to low soil moisture and below-average rainfall, there were concerns that the country’s wheat output would drop significantly compared to the previous year’s 34.1-million-tonne harvest. But the FAS predicts this year’s wheat production will reach 31 million tonnes, still 12% above the 10-year average.

The expected year-on-year decline is mostly due to “a smaller planted area and slightly lower yield expectations,” the FAS said. The reduction in planted area is partly due to poor early-season conditions in southern Australia, which prompted some growers to plant barley instead, the FAS said.

“Despite lower production, wheat exports are forecast to rise from 23 million tonnes to 25 million tonnes, supported by higher carry-in stocks, contributing to a tighter supply and reduced export capacity in the coming year,” the FAS said.

Despite a 4.3% increase in planted area and production being revised higher by 500,000 tonnes from the previous forecast, barley production year on year is seen falling from 13.26 million tonnes in 2024-25 to 13 million tonnes this year, according to the FAS. Still, the production forecast is 10.3% above the same benchmark, supported by yield that is 6% above the 10-year average.

In 2024-25, Australia was the No. 1 exporter and No. 3 producer of barley. It ranked fourth in wheat exports and eighth in wheat production last year.