EU: Grain production set to bounce back, European Commission says

The April edition of the European Commission’s winter, spring and summer crop production outlook was released last week, with the yield estimates for total wheat, total barley, corn and rapeseed across the European Union higher or unchanged compared to last month’s initial 2025-26 forecast, and well up of last year’s setback, Grain Central reported on April 30.

A production rebound on the back of vastly improved growing season and harvest weather conditions compared to last year has been widely anticipated.

Nevertheless, there are still some areas of concern as the crops move into the critical crop development and reproductive phases when they are most sensitive to moisture and temperature stress.

According to the latest JRC MARS bulletin from the EC, European weather currently exhibits two distinctly different scenarios.

In central and northern European cropping regions, dry conditions prevail, resulting in soil moisture deficits that may adversely impact winter and spring crop development and production.

In contrast, southern Europe has benefited from abundant rainfall, which has enhanced soil moisture profiles and boosted yield prospects.

Drier than normal weather conditions have been observed in north-eastern France, the Benelux countries, Germany, Czechia, western and northern Poland, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and the Baltic states.

All these regions are experiencing a rainfall deficit of at least 50 percent compared with the long-term average, and, for most of them, the period from March 1 to April 12 ranks among the driest since 1991.

Above-average temperatures have also boosted evapotranspiration, leading to accelerated crop development and depletion of soil moisture reserves.

Crop yields are indeed under threat in Germany, Europe’s second-largest wheat producer, where topsoil moisture reserves across much of the country are significantly lower than usual for the beginning of April.

Germany has seen its driest February to mid-April period since 1931, according to the country’s meteorological service DWD, with growing season rainfall registrations running around 200 millimetres behind the 30-year average.

JRC MARS reports that although the dry period initially allowed winter crops across the EU-27 to recover from an excessively wet winter, spring precipitation is essential to consolidate crop development and avoid any reduction in yield expectations.

The dry weather conditions in the north were also ideal for planting this year’s spring crops, but rainfall is desperately required in many areas to support crop emergence and early plant growth.

In parts of central and eastern Europe, a series of cold spells and recent rain has delayed the sowing of some spring and summer crops.

In France, the EU’s biggest grain-producing member state, the condition of the soft wheat crops declined slightly week-on-week, although merchants expect rain in the past seven days to help crops after a dry start to the spring.

According to FranceAgriMer, 74 percent of the nation’s soft wheat crops were estimated to be in good or excellent condition as of April 21, down from 75 percent a week earlier.

However, this was still well ahead of the 63 percent rating at the same time last year when torrential rain severely damaged crops and led to the smallest wheat harvest since the 1980s.

The condition of this season’s winter barley crop in France also slipped as of April 21, with 70 percent of the area rated good or excellent.

This compares to 72 percent a week earlier and brings it closer to the 66 percent score at the same time in 2024.

Last week’s good to excellent ratings for durum wheat and spring barley were unchanged compared to April 14 at 76 and 84 percent, respectively.

Total EU area, production up
The EC estimated the total area planted to cereals across the EU-27 for harvest in 2025 is 50.3 million hectares, up 2.5 percent from the 49.0Mha planted for harvest last year.

At 21.17Mha, soft wheat makes up 42.1 percent of that total.

The second biggest cereal crop in the EU is barley, with 10.29Mha, or 20.5 percent of the total.

Corn comes in third with 8.77Mha or 17.4 per cent of the total.

Collectively, they make up over 80 percent of the area sown down to cereals across the EU-27 for the 2025-26 season.

The JRC MARS yield forecast for soft wheat is currently pegged at 6.03 metric tonne per hectare, up from the 6.00mt/ha forecast in March and the final 2024 harvest yield of 5.58mt/ha.

The average durum wheat yield of 3.69mt/ha is fractionally lower than the initial March figure of 3.70mt/ha, but considerably higher than the 3.43mt/ha posted last year.

Putting the two together gives an average total wheat yield of 5.82mt/ha in April, up from 5.80/mt/ha in March and 5.55mt/ha in 2024.

All this points to total new crop wheat production for the European Union’s 27 member states of 134.3 million metric tonne, sharply better than the 12-year low of 118.9MMT harvested last year.

Soft wheat output is expected to be 126.3MMT, up from 111.7MMT in 2024, the smallest soft wheat crop since 2007.

Durum wheat production is pegged at 7.9MMT, 10 percent higher than the previous harvest total of 7.2MMT.

The all barley yield is now expected to reach 5.08mt/ha, up from the March estimate of 5.06mt/ha, and 4.82mt/ha a year earlier, according to JRC MARS.

The winter barley component is expected to yield 5.18mt/ha, up from 5.15mt/ha in March and 4.81mt/ha in 2024.

It is early days for the spring barley crop, but the EC is forecasting a yield of 4.87mt/ha, on par with the March update but 4.5 percent higher than the 4.66mt/ha result in 2024.

Total barley output is currently pegged at 51.7MMT, up from 49.1MMT last year, and the five-year average of 50.6MMT.

EU-27 corn production is forecast to jump by 9.9 percent year-on-year, to 65MMT, despite a slight reduction in the area expected to be allocated to the summer crop for 2025/26.

The primary driver is a 10.4 percent bounce in the forecast yield from 6.71MT/ha in 2024 to 7.41MT/ha this year.

On the rapeseed front, the 5.9Mha seeded last autumn was only 200,000 hectares higher year-on-year but is ahead of the five-year average.

JRC MARS’ current yield expectation is 3.2MT/ha, unchanged from the initial forecast in March, but a tad better than the 2024 result of 3.16MT/ha.

The resultant production forecast of 18.9MMT is 12.8 percent higher than the 16.8MMT produced in 2024 and 5 percent ahead of the 18MMT five-year average.

E-malt.com, the global information source for the brewing and malting industry professionals. The bi-weekly E-malt.com Newsletters feature latest industry news, statistics in graphs and tables, world barley and malt prices, and other relevant information. Click here to get full access to E-malt.com. If you are a Castle Malting client, you can get free access to E-malt.com website and publications. Contact us for more information at marketing@castlemalting.com .