Canada: Barley supply estimated down 3% in 2024-25 and 5% in 2025-26

For 2024-25, the Canadian barley supply is estimated at 9.4 million tonnes (Mt), down 3% from the previous crop year due to lower production from smaller area, although carry-in stocks are sharply above last year’s level and the five-year average, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their April report.

The 2024-25 supply is also 9% below the five-year average.

Total exports for the entire season are projected at 2.9 Mt (approximately three-quarters from grain exports and around one-quarter from product exports), down 4% from last season and 13% below the five-year average. China remains the largest destination of Canadian barley grain exports, representing almost 70% of the exported volume, followed by Japan (20%) and the U.S. (<10%). The U.S. is the largest destination of Canadian barley product exports, representing almost 60% of the volume, followed by Japan (>20%), Mexico (>10%), and South Korea.

Total domestic use is projected at 5.7 Mt, 3% higher year-over-year (y/y) despite a noticeable decline in supplies.

Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.8 Mt, 32% lower y/y and close to historic lows, as a result of reduced supplies.

The Lethbridge average barley price recovered from a multi-year low of approximately C$255/tonne (t) in August, and reached over C$300/t since last December, bringing the to-date average to approximately C$290/t. The average price for the entire crop year is projected at $295/t, the lowest since 2021-22.

For 2025-26, Canadian barley area is projected by Statistics Canada (STC) in its March 12 release at 2.5 million hectares (Mha) for the 2025-26 growing season. This is 2% lower from the previous year and 14% below the previous five-year average. Amid the three Canadian Prairie provinces, Alberta and Manitoba are expected to seed less barley this spring compared to last year, while Saskatchewan is expected to plant more.

Production is projected at 8.1 Mt, down 1% from 2024-25 due to smaller area along with forecast average yields.

Supply is projected at 9.0 Mt, down 5% y/y due to lower production and carry-in stocks; it is also the lowest on record.

Partly due to the expected smaller supplies, forecasts for exports, total domestic use, and carry-out stocks are lower than those projected for 2024-25.

The 2025-26 Lethbridge average feed barley price is projected at C$285/t, down C$10/t from 2024-25, due to pressure from expected lower US corn prices.

Worldwide, the International Grains Council (IGC)’s data indicates a recovery in global barley output for 2025-26, with production increasing in Argentina, Canada, the EU, Russia, and the U.S., but decreasing in Australia and Kazakhstan, while remaining stable in Ukraine.

At 146.8 Mt, global barley production for 2025-26 is projected to be up 2% y/y but 2% below the five-year average. World demand is predicted to decrease fractionally, due to lower feed use and industrial use, along with stable human food consumption.

International trade is predicted to grow, as a result of more feed barley movement out of Argentina and Russia. Global ending stocks for 2025-26 are predicted to be tight due to insufficient stocks in the Black Sea and EU regions, although Australia’s stocks will remain ample.

At 22.1 Mt, the 2025-26 global ending stocks will be up 1% y/y, but down 11% from the five-year average.

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